"One thing I'm tracking right now is our RPI - and right now we've played this great schedule right? When it's all said and done they project your RPI for the year...they have our schedule projected in the 300's...Here we are playing this big time schedule...right now we have the highest RPI in the conference and those things matter as you're trying to take your program to the postseason"
- Doug Wojcik during his weekly podcast back in December
Living here in DC around New Years there were two things everyone around town was buzzing about: the Redskins and the fiscal cliff. Back down south there are stat-head fans in Charleston and Charlotte preparing for their own doomsday: the beginning of conference play.
According to realtimerpi.com the Cougars still hold the highest RPI in the conference at 67, followed by Elon at 126 and Davidson at 131. Those are all solid numbers for mid-major teams and with 75% of RPI based on Strength of Schedule, it rewards these three teams for working hard to put together a strong out-of-conference slate of games. Not only that but all three SoCon schools have delivered on the court with winning records and some of the SoCon's marquee victories on the season.
After the first few teams in the Southern Conference there is a significant drop off in RPI. Here's the rest of the conference through today. Keep in mind that only Division I games are counted and there are a total of 347 teams in Division I basketball.
The bottom five teams there are what really grinds the gears of Coach Wojcik and those on the victorious side of the conference move debate. Win or lose, the RPI of this team is going to fall once conference play begins. That's because the impressive schedule of teams the program worked hard to not only secure, but to compete against, is going to drop with each pair of mandatory games against the likes of Furman and the Citadel. The fact that we have nearly half the conference in the bottom 8% of all Division I programs (including the dead last team) is depressing.
Of course winning cures all. If a team like Davidson or CofC can run through conference play with less than maybe 3 losses there could be a more favorable NCAA Tournament matchup waiting at the finish line. But at the end of the day there will be one Southern Conference team that moves on to the Big Dance - just like always. If the basketball gods are just then one team out of Davidson, CofC, Elon or Wofford will be victorious and represent the entire SoCon. But until the rest of our crew can get it done on the court there's only a 3-4 game stretch of games in March that really matter.
CofC wouldn't be a lot better in the CAA, here's today's RPI conference positions, note CAA 24 & SoCon 27. Neither likely to get an at large.
ReplyDelete21 Sun Belt
22 Patriot League
23 Ivy League
24 Colonial Athletic
25 America East
26 Atlantic Sun
27 Southern
28 Mid-Eastern
29 Southwestern Athletic
30 Big Sky
31 Big South
32 Independents
I agree, doesn't look like CAA will be a two-bid league this year. I'll also say that both SoCon and CAA are having down years. But I think the expectation is that the addition of CofC to the CAA and its subtraction from the SoCon will widen the gap slightly.
ReplyDeleteIn the future, especially if the CAA bounces back, CofC's RPI shouldn't drop like it does in the SoCon. And if it does come down to a selection scenario we could have a more competitive resume.