With one glaring exception, the SoCon tournament has gone as I had predicted. Now the big guns come in and we get to see what effect an additional playing day will have on App State, Western Carolina, Furman and Georgia Southern. All these games will be entertaining so I'll just put them in order.
Game 5, 12 pm: App State (5N) vs UNCG (1N)
Ike Butts has become my own personal Bloody Mary. He goes through the motions during the regular season and then come tournament time he decides to turn in on, huffing and puffing down the court. He crushed my hopes in 2009 with his 300 lbs of force and he crushed them again in 2011. What were we talking about? Now the immovable object, Butts, goes against the unstoppable force, a UNCG offense running on fresh legs. Trevis Simpson and company will run circles around the Mountaineers. ASU never got a chance to catch their breath yesterday and I don't think their hot shooting carries over.
Most Important Player: Isaac Butts of course. If he can play for multiple stretches he completely seals out the paint and will give ASU another look at the basket. He's not a scorer, but his presence and size alone dictates how opponents attack his team offensively.
The Pick: UNCG The Spartans are not a team you want to play on the backside of a back-to-back. I would've worried about the Cougars in this one just because of the intensity and pace of yesterday's contest. Too much firepower for G and too much wear-and-tear on App State's side.
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Game 6, 2:30 pm: Wofford (2S) vs Western Carolina (3N)
Wofford clawed their way into a bye for this opportunity. Loesing and Giltner play almost 40 minutes every game and they need their rest going against some of these more athletic up-and-down teams. These teams split the regular season 1-1 with both teams defending their home court. Neither game was particularly close, with WCU winning by 10 in Cullowhee and the Terriers winning by 26 in Spartanburg. Mike Young will have his team executing exactly the way he wants them to on both ends of the floor. An undisciplined team like the Catamounts is exactly the type of opponent Wofford does away with fairly quickly. The WCU guards are going to have to shoot lights out against a tough D to pull this one out.
Most Important Player: Harouna Mutombo The senior is going to have to make his shots from outside and play some hard-nosed defense in order to stop Wofford from getting wide open opportunities. If he or Sumler can have a big game they have a chance.
The Pick: Wofford Don't bet against the reigning champs in their first game.
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Game 7, 6pm: Furman (5S) vs Davidson (1S)
Best of luck Furman. This Davidson team has been using the regular season as a warm-up for tournament time. They've been engineered in a laboratory by Bob McKillop to do all the things you need to do to win big games: defense, rebounding, free throw shooting. The Wildcats have their vulnerabilities (playing more than one game in a short period of time being one of them) and it's entirely possible that a hot-shooting team can take them out. But I don't see Furman as being that team. Although, based on the Law of Syllogism, maybe beating Samford means they can beat Davidson.
Most Important Player: Chris Czerapowicz I know the sophomore Swede is sort of the popular pick for this spot but he really can be an X-factor. Teams know about Brooks, Cochran and Kuhlman but Chris C. gives the Cats another stretch forward who's good for some shots and a couple rebounds with those guys sitting.
The Pick: Davidson
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Game 8, 8:30 pm: Elon (2N) vs GSU (3S)
This is the game I'm most interested to see. Charlton's young guys got a HUGE confidence boost after coming back to defeat the senior-laden Mocs. Did you see how some of those guys were reacting after the game?! It's like they won the whole thing. Elon plays better defense than Chattanooga but GSU just consistently makes jumpers. The Eagles also moved the ball well against the Mocs. From what I have seen from Elon, they have a propensity to never really take their game into that next gear. Isenbarger and Troutman have to will their team to victory because (as the Cougs found out) teams really bring it for the postseason.
Most Important Player: Ferguson vs Troutman Eric Ferguson was huge against Chattanooga and he can't disappear after playing 35 minutes less than 24 hours ago. Troutman can be a force in the middle but he's inconsistent. Maybe he takes the advantage over a tired GSU front line.
The Pick: GSU Going with the Cougar's South division brethren in this one. They looked really good in the last 10 minutes against Chattanooga. This upset could obviously blow up in my face but I'm sticking with UNCG as the only North team going to the Final Four.
"The two times these two teams have played, Wofford has won and it hasn't even been close."
ReplyDeleteJust a small correction. The Catamounts won in Cullowhee on January 7th, 67-57, so they are 1-1 against the Terriers in the regular season.
Otherwise, I enjoyed your preview of today's games.
Sorry about that, edited to get the correct record. Must have switched between the WCU and Wofford pages on ESPN too quickly. Thanks for the heads up.
ReplyDelete