If you would have told me in December that the semi-finals of the SoCon Tournament featured three teams from the North Division and no CofC, I probably would have told you to take your prediction and shove it up your Nostradamass. And yet here we are. One of these teams will have the privilege of representing the entire conference in the Big Dance (and it won't be Wofford). When will we see regular-season Western Carolina return? When will the Spartans run out of steam? And who the hell is guarding Chris Czerapowicz?! All your questions will be answered in the next two days. For now, lets take a look at tonights games.
Game 9, 6pm: UNCG (1N) vs Western Carolina (3N)
The Western Carolina Catamounts have been one of the pleasant surprises of the SoCon Tournament so far. They are the only non-bye team still in the race for a championship and they also dismissed two-time champ Wofford in the process. What'll be interesting tonight is how they handle a team that runs a completely different offense than what the Catamounts have faced so far in the postseason. Citadel and Wofford both run their offense very methodically in the half court. The Spartans like to get out and run and jack up shots. The Terriers and Bulldogs orchestrate their offense like a well-tuned symphony. UNC Greensboro is much more hard rock. They're running and gunning and it's nothing pretty but it's sure as hell entertaining.
The teams have been real competitive with one another this season. Seven points and an overtime combined are all that separated these two squads in their home-and-away with each other. It's hard to get a gauge on UNCG because they have only played one tournament game. In that game against App State, it took about 25 minutes for Trevis Simpson to get going and once the Mountaineers had their hands on their knees during dead balls it was all over. Too much athleticism by the Spartans. UNCG didn't shoot well in that game but they made up for it by playing enough bodies to keep the tempo up.
Western Carolina has been led by Harouna Mutombo and Trey Sumler. Both guards have been instrumental in frustrating opponents on the perimeter and hitting timely shots. The issue is going to be how long they can keep up a consistent defensive effort given the dense tournament schedule. There's a reason no team has ever won the four games in four days. Mental fatigue is just as much an issue as physical fatigue and the Catamounts are going to need both to keep pace with Greensboro.
The Pick: UNC Greensboro My mind's telling me no, but my body, my body's telling me yes. That's how I feel about picking the Catamounts. Any team that beats Wofford in the postseason has my backing. I just worry about the fatigue issue. Citadel and Wofford play slower than the average SoCon team and that certainly has helped the Cats win two games in two days. UNCG's tempo is the opposite of all that. Going with my mind in this one and picking the 1N seed.
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Game 10, 8:30 pm: Davidson (1S) vs Elon (2N)
I mentioned earlier how the Game 9 matchup features two similar teams going against each other. In the entire Southern Conference there may not be two more similar teams than those facing off in Game 10: Davidson and Elon. That's because Elon coach Matt Methany studied under the tutelage of Bob McKillop for 16 seasons before taking over the Phoenix in 2009. Matheny built his team under many of the same principles that McKillop employs: smart guard play, doing all the little things right etc. What caused Elon to get blown out by Davidson this year in the pair's only meeting was rebounding. The Wildcats held a commanding 45-27 advantage on the glass. That will have to be a point of emphasis for the Phoenix and they'll likely need a big game from Lucas Troutman. When the Cougars played Davidson at Belk, our guys really had a tough time rebounding while chasing guys like Jake Cohen around the perimeter. Matt Methany might have to get creative and aggressive with his game plan if Elon is going to pull the upset.
The Pick: Davidson The only way the Wildcats are losing this one is if they're looking ahead to the championship game and they let the Phoenix shoot way over their head.
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