Just a few more hours until the second season begins for Southern Conference basketball fans. If your team was unlucky enough to miss out on a bye, you'll have to change your work plans and leave for Asheville on a business day. But have no fear, there's some good basketball being played on the first day of the tournament and you have an extra few hours to do tourist-y type things.
Below are my two cents on each matchup of Day 1 at the US Cellular Center. Since there are four games to choose from and none featuring higher seeded teams, I thought of my own criteria for which games deserve your well-earned ticket money. The games below are ranked in order of entertainment value, ranked on a scale of from 1 (Taccoa Falls vs WCU) to 10 (A dunk contest between Trevis Simpson and James Carlton).
Game 4, 8:30 pm: Georgia Southern (3S) vs. Chattanooga (6N)
The final game of Day 1 is far and away the one drooling with the most excitement. Sure it may not have what those basketball elitists like to call "fundamentals" but it does have the key qualities of any college basketball drama.
1) Both teams have a chip on their shoulder. GSU missed out on a bye in the last week of the regular season and now faces the 4-game uphill battle. UTC is dealing with not living up to expectations during the regular season and they have a chance to prove their doubters wrong in the tourney.
2) Both these squads have athletic players that will be able to sustain a break-neck pace should it come to that. In fact, we could see as many as 20 players take the floor in this one.
3) There's bad blood between these teams already. There aren't too many real rivalries in this conference, but Chattanooga really should want to stick it to GSU. The last time these two met, the Mocs surrendered a 16-point lead in the final 10 minutes and the Eagles hit a three-point buzzer-beater to win the game in Chatty.
4) Hothead coaches. John Shulman and Charlton Young
In terms of matchups: this game will come down to one thing that each team does very well. The GSU Eagles can really shoot (their 46.7% average from the floor puts them in the top 50 in the country). The Mocs are not a very consistent shooting team. However, the Mocs should get a lot of opportunities at the basket because they are the 18th best rebounding team in the country. The Eagles are not a good rebounding team (worst in the SoCon with 31 a game). My guess is Charlton Young tries to keep it up tempo, subbing in as need be, attacking the rim and getting open looks from the perimeter before the Mocs get situated on defense. Shulman has the bodies to keep it in a track meet, but the piecemeal lineups for UTC are going to have to execute offensively.
Entertainment Value: 8.5
Most Important Player: Jelani Hewitt The first time these two teams met, Hewitt had a career-high 20 points on 6 three-pointers. Then in January, he hit the shot that won it for the Eagles in Chattanooga. He's normally not a huge threat, but he seems to bring it against the Mocs.
The Pick: Georgia Southern By far the toughest one to call on Day One. I don't like teams that come into the tournament not playing their best ball. The Eagles have lost two straight and they got blown out at home by Davidson with a shot at a bye on the line. However, I guess this is technically an away game for the Mocs. I can see the Mocs winning this, but I really want to believe the regular season is more important than that. The Eagles pass the eye test, they should win. Charlton, don't make me look like an idiot.
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Game 1, 11 am: College of Charleston (4S) vs. Appalachian State (5N)
Not too far from the entertainment level of the nightcap game, CofC/App State is the marquee matchup of Day 1. Both teams have fans that travel well and the teams have players who can be difference makers. Aside from maybe Davidson, Appalachian State may have the front line best suited for taking on Trent Wiedeman and Adjehi Baru. Williamson and Butts can bog down our guys one-on-one and force them into some tough shots. Omar Carter can go off if left unchecked. If the Cougars are going to take this one, they'll have jump out to an early lead despite what will probably be a hostile environment. If they can accomplish that, get the bigs some rest and hit their outside shots we should be OK. Every time we play ASU it seems to come down to that: hitting shots. The Mountaineers make it tough on you. They haven't been playing very inspired as of late but anything can change in the tournament.
Entertainment Value: 8
Most Important Player: Matt Sundberg. If Sunny D is going to justify his time as a forward on the court, he's going to have to hit his threes. Butts and Williamson will destroy him down low. In order to neutralize this, Matt can't go into another shooting slump. His ability to space the floor, open lanes for Stitt and put points on the board will be essential for the Cougars.
The Pick: CofC My entire bracket will take a pretty sizable hit if I'm wrong about this one. By the way this game scares the crap out of me.
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Game 2, 2 pm: Western Carolina (3N) vs. Citadel (6S)
A few numbers for you to crunch on this one: Western Carolina is 2nd in the SoCon in steals per game and turnover margin (+1.89 per game). The Citadel turns the ball over more than any other team in the league. This noticeable mismatch for the Bulldogs would be possible to overcome IF they could actually put the ball through the basket. Unfortunately, their offensive pace as well as their lack of shooters makes it very difficult for the cadets to put enough points on the board to overcome their negative turnover margin. The best way for Citadel to stay in this one is going to be to sway the Cats into playing Bulldog-ball. Chuck Driesell has been successful in slowing down the game against UTC and CofC and the Dogs have been able to cover their inefficiencies by keeping the game slow and low-scoring.
Expect Mike Groselle to have a BIG game. This Western Carolina squad is really tiny up front and they give up a lot of rebounds. Remember, with no Trent Wiedeman, Adjehi Baru still tore up the Catamounts for 17 boards by himself. Groselle is an even more talented glass cleaner and he should get his own.
Entertainment Value: 4
Most Important Player: Mike Groselle No player in this conference means more to their team than the Big Nasty (get it, nasty...gross-elle?). If the Bulldogs want to make it past round one, Mike is going to need to dominant the paint.
The Pick: Western Carolina Limit Groselle, force turnovers, dictate the pace. So far that has been the recipe for defeating the Citadel. The Bulldogs have been playing better of late but Mutombo and Sumler won't have trouble getting their points if they can break the Bulldog's defensive pressure.
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Game 3, 6 pm: Samford (4N) vs Furman (5S)
This would not be a bad time to visit some of the sites in and around Asheville. Visit the Biltmore, sample some craft beers, hell you could even go see a movie. The winner of this snooze-inducing matchup will go on to play Davidson in the second round and I get the feeling neither team will look capable of pulling an upset. As much as I would love to see Samford whoop up on Davidson in Round 2, I don't see that anomaly occurring again.
Entertainment Value: 1
Most Important Player: Brandon Sebirumbi. The 6-9 man in the middle for Furman is the only thing keeping this game's entertainment value above a zero. You could make the case that the first tournament game for Samford's two All-Freshman Team selections (Tyler Hood and Raijon Kelly) will be a good litmus test, but I enjoy watching Sebirumbi play.
The Pick: Furman with the "upset"
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