This year the Cougars won themselves a bye in the first round of SoCon Tournament action on Friday. By the time the Cougars take the floor Saturday night, seven of the twelve participating teams will have already been eliminated. But that shouldn't stop Cougar fans from checking in on all the action leading up to Game 8. There are some good first round matchups on Friday, let's preview them.
Game 1: #8 Wofford vs #9 Georgia Southern
The 8/9 matchup is always a good one and the Asheville action kicks off this year with a great dichotomy in playing styles. Wofford is slow-paced, methodical on defense and deliberate on offense. Mike Young led his Terriers to back-to-back SoCon Championships because of his teams' ability to defend and rebound the ball. The make up of this year's young team is much more inconsistent on both ends of the court. The Terriers can still defend in the half court, but they don't have the size to rebound against top-tier SoCon teams or the offensive diversity to keep pace with the smaller SoCon teams.
Georgia Southern wants to be an up-tempo, run-and-gun team. They have a starting five of track athletes, quick guards on the perimeter and one of the leagues best wing players in Eric Ferguson. The ideal pace for the Eagles is just the opposite of what Wofford prefers; Charlton Young likes his teams to get up and down the floor. Defensively, GSU's length and speed can cause problems for opposing teams. In January, the Eagles were able to knock off the two best teams in the conference (Davidson and CofC) by forcing turnovers. But when the same defensive pressure is applied to the Eagles, they often panic and take rushed shots. A lot of times GSU is guilty into falling into whatever playing style their opponent dictates, but their halfcourt offense cannot keep them in games on it's own.
Most Important Player: Karl Cochran. As the high-volume sophomore shooting guard goes, so do the Terriers. He attempts nearly half the teams shots and he's probably worth 75% of their offense. Here's why Cochran is so important: as long as Mike Young is on the bench, Wofford's defense is stingy enough to keep teams in the 50's. Unfortunately, Wofford has so few weapons offensively that they all too often cannot score enough points to win games. Cochran is capable of pouring in 30 point games when he's dialed in. If his shots are falling in Asheville the Terriers win this one.
Entertainment Value: 7- Georgia Southern is a very entertaining group when opponents let them get out in transition. Even with Wofford's defense I think the Eagles are still good for some "wow" plays under the Civic Center lights. There's also Karl Cochran who is the mini Mini Mamba. Definitely one of the more exciting first round games.
The Pick: Wofford. The Terriers swept the Eagles in two meetings this year. Fundamentally strong defensive teams are kryptonite to Georgia Southern. I think the Terriers slow GSU down out of their comfort zone and Cochran does enough with weak defensive pressure from GSU's guards to carry the Terriers offense. It's tough to beat a team three times but I'm sticking with Wofford.
Game 2: #5 Samford vs #12 Furman
Samford, I was counting on you to lock up that bye. They have all the pieces to be a contender in the SoCon for years: great coach, a multi-faceted guard in Raijon Kelly, the leagues best freshman in forward Tim Williams. The Bulldogs were my favorite to get that final bye spot but a pair of overtime losses to the other two teams in contention, App State and Western Carolina, was the nail in the four day coffin for Coach Seltzer and company. Luckily their consolation prize is the opportunity to bully one of the worst teams in Division 1 basketball.
If momentum is the biggest advantage going into tournament play then the Paladins are in for a short stay in Asheville. Furman is riding a 10 game losing streak heading into the postseason and not looking any better than their numbers on the surface. They can't rebound and their offense is all out of whack. The one thing they do have going for them is senior big man Colin Reddick. He is capable of chipping Williams off his spots and possibly disrupting the two man pick-and-roll game of Samford.
Most Important Player: Raijon Kelly. Fresh off an All-Conference selection, Kelly will be put to the test in postseason play. The pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop chemistry he and Williams have is the basis for Samford's offense. If Williams is struggling in his first SoCon Tournament it will be up to the versatile Kelly to create his own offense or become more of a drive-and-kick point guard.
Entertainment Value: 3- Neither of these teams are flashy. From a pure basketball nerd perspective, watching Coach Seltzer's team operate is kind of "fun" but keep in mind the level of competition. Game 1 should end around 1:30, this would be a great time to grab lunch or a local brew.
The Pick: Samford. The Paladins are the Walking Dead right now. They're only dressing like seven players, they're inexperienced and coming in with all that reverse momentum. A SoCon Tournament run does not look to be in the cards for them. Samford is probably under-seeded and should take Game 2 in convincing fashion.
Game 3: #7 Chattanooga vs #10 UNCG
Two very dangerous teams get to go at each other in Game 3. Both capable of lighting up the scoreboard, both averse to playing defense and SoCon stars on both sides. Trevis Simpson and Derell Armstrong lead the high-scoring but severely under-achieving UNCG Spartans. Greensboro was the preseason pick to win the North Division but their lackadaisical approach to defense and inefficient offense have led to their 12 conference losses and 10th seeded status. Like Georgia Southern the Spartans would prefer a faster pace where they can jack up lots of shots and attempt to outscore their opponents.
The Mocs can be a tough matchup for just about any SoCon team-top to bottom. The Z Men (Drazen Zlovaric and Z Mason) make up one of the best rebounding tandems in the league. Outside the arc the Mocs have a talented guard rotation led by underclassmen Gee McGhee and Rico White. Chattanooga's deeeeep bench rotation is ideal for the 4 games in 4 days format; but the real thing to watch in this game is UTC's full court pressure. Because of their depth, the Mocs can afford to full court press the entire game: and they often do. It can present problems for offensively challenged teams but such a distinction does not apply to the Spartans. Greensboro could easily break the press and get the run out dunks and three pointers they love so much or could fold under the pressure and give up a ton of turnovers. Those two possibilities make for an enticing game.
Most Important Player: Chattanooga's bench. Having the bodies to roll 12 deep is a big advantage, but sometimes the Mocs offense suffers from the hodgepodge lineups. Shulman has a habit of putting lineups on the floor that don't matchup well against opponents and he pulls players so often that there's no time for his second or third lines to gel. The lack of a pure point guard hurts the Spartans chances against the press but I think they break it most of the time and put up a bunch of points. It will be up to the guys not yet mentioned on Chattanooga's roster to score when they're on the court.
Entertainment Value: 9! Hope everyone in attendance got their tourist commitments out of the way because this one promises more dunks and unguarded three pointers than an NBA All-Star game. Far and away the most entertainment potential of any first round game.
The Pick: UNCG. I'm going all chalk in the first round so it's time for an upset. This one is the closest to call so I will be only slightly humiliated if I'm wrong. The Spartans handled the Mocs in both meetings this year. Both teams seemed to have peaked weeks ago rather than carrying good play into the postseason. I think UNCG is a tough matchup for Chatt's full court pressure and the Spartans win this game.
Game 4: #6 Western Carolina vs #11 Citadel
The preview most of you immediately scrolled to because the winner of this game plays the Cougars on Saturday. The Bulldogs and Catamounts were opponents in last year's Round 1 in Asheville in which the Cats were victorious en route to their championship game run. The key players are still the same: namely Mike Groselle and Trey Sumler, but the gap in talent isn't as large. The Citadel is playing better as of late as Coach Driesell's players continue to improve. These two teams played their only regular season meeting way back on January 5th with WCU winning by 18.
The biggest problem Citadel had in that game, and most likely in this game, was that they have no one who can guard Sumler. Trey Sumler is one of the SoCon's best scorers and falls into the category of "we need him to be effective to win" shooting guards in the SoCon. In many of the games the Catamounts have lost, Sumler has forced shots. The Bulldogs were unable to take Sumler out of his comfort zone and he torched them. Not only that but WCU's Tawaski King was tough on Mike Groselle. Without Groselle's points and no one to disrupt the Catamount offense, Citadel fell.
Most Important Player: The Western Carolina fans. Asheville is just an hour drive from the Cullowhee campus and there is a sizable Catamount alumni population in and around the SoCon Tournament's host city. Last year they were large enough and loud enough to carry WCU to their improbable four game run. The Catamounts have a distinct advantage in Asheville and they'll ride it as far as it, and Trey Sumler, will take them.
Entertainment Value: 6 Again this one takes a hit to the entertainment index because of the ineptitude of one of the participants. Citadel, winners of 6 Division 1 games this year, does not muster much in the realm of spectator value. Because of the location and time however, this game will have a good crowd on hand.
The Pick: Western Carolina. I know the game is not played on paper but WCU was the much better team this season. The game is instead played in front of hundreds of Western Carolina fans in which case...WCU is still a clear favorite. As much as I would love for our Charleston brethren to knock off the defending runner-ups and meet us on Saturday, I think the Catamounts win this game.
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