Monday, December 3, 2012

The Big One: Louisville @ College of Charleston

"There are no moral victories but they [CofC] outplayed us tonight...for about 32-33 minutes they were the better team tonight" - Rick Pitino after the Cards narrowly escaped College of Charleston last season

College of Charleston (5-2, 1-0)
Louisville (6-1, 0-0)
TD Arena
Tipoff at 9pm on ESPNU

Here we are folks, the moment you've all been waiting for. The game I had circled all the way back prior to Labor Day has finally arrived. After the Cougars took Louisville down to the wire in their house we all anticipated a fiery matchup in 2012 when the teams would face off inside TD Arena. Since that game last year the Cardinals have gone to the Final Four, been picked as the favorite to win a national championship, lost to a very good Duke team and struggled to replace their best defensive player (Gorgui Dieng) who is out following surgery on a broken wrist. On the Cougars' side they have hired a new coach, committed to a more consistent and defense-oriented style of play and been playing very solid ball following the loss of one of their key players.

The game sets up well for the Cougars. Rick Pitino mentioned in his preview of the game that his Cardinals are walking into a "hornet's nest" at TD Arena. Tuesday is Reading Day before finals so there are none of those pesky classes to distract students or players from the fury that is going to take place at the ThunderDome when ESPN turns on the cameras. Quite a tough environment for the Cardinals to play their first true road game. That's right, Louisville has played all six of their games either at home or on the neutral court of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Even at home the Cards are still adjusting to life without Dieng. They barely got past a solid mid-major in Illinois State and Northern Iowa also gave them a scare. It should also be noted how much of an impact Dieng had in this matchup last year. He had 14 points, 12 rebounds and 5 blocks in 38 minutes of play and was the cause of a lot of hesitation shooting under the basket by the Cougars.

Ever since defeating another Top 25 team on the road the Cougars have really jelled despite the loss of an all-conference player in Trent Wiedeman. Willis Hall fits perfectly into Coach Wojcik's tough, blue collar style of play and bookends Adjehi Baru and Andrew Lawrence are playing at elite levels. The Cougars are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country (41.5%) and have yet to be out-rebounded by a single team this season. In big games like this it's usually the seniors who step up the most. Willis wasn't able to play this Cardinals team last year due to injury but I'm expecting big things from him, Andrew Lawrence and Matt "SunnyD" Sundberg.

But if the Cougars are going to get anything more than a good learning experience out of this they're going to have to A) not beat themselves and B) limit the Cardinal backcourt and C) get the best out of their best players.

One problem that has followed the Cougars around all season has been the turnovers. For a stretch it seemed like it was diminishing, but then against Elon on Saturday, the guys committed an ugly 20 giveaways. Andrew Lawrence couldn't explain all the unforced TO's, Coach Wojcik didn't understand why it happened, but a game like that can't happen against a Rick Pitino-led squad. Louisville's calling card is their defense; it might be the best in the country. They press full court, they pester and double team ball handlers (the Cards are a Top 10 team nationally in steals per game) and they defend the rim even without Dieng. Teams also don't get many second chances against Louisville, the Cards rebound at a high level as well.

The Cardinal backcourt is spearheaded by starting point guard Peyton Siva and leading scorer Russ Smith. Stitt and Lawrence are both solid on-ball defenders but they'll once again have their hands full with these two. Siva was one of the stars of last season's NCAA Tournament and can get to the rim seemingly at will. Off the ball Russ Smith is averaging 20 points a game as the team's lethal outside shooter. Both guys also average about 3 steals a piece defending the perimeter.

Finally the Cougars are going to have to have big games from just about everybody. Adjehi Baru has to continue his stellar play against BCS teams by staying out of foul trouble and being a threat offensively. We also need him to continue rebounding and defending well. Is that too much to ask? Lawrence and Stitt both need to hang on to the ball against that fierce Cardinal defensive pressure and take advantage of Dieng's absence by driving to the rim. When they do, spot up shooters like Nori Johnson and Sundberg can't afford to be cold from deep. Matt had one of his best games of the season against this team last year (3-for-3 from deep and led the team with 9 boards) so you know he'll be ready to play. Anthony Thomas also has to have a big day. He was brought in to replace Antwaine Wiggins, who led the Cougars in scoring against the Cardinals last time. Thomas is another guy who we can't afford to have turning the ball over.

There's a real buzz around Charleston for this game, as well there should be. The Cougars have given fans something to cheer for and you could argue there's never been a more highly regarded team to play one of the Holy City's universities. I guess the only thing left to say is Go Cougars!


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